Exchange rate USD/MXN forecast through econometric models, time series and HOWMA operators

This paper aims to provide models that can predict the exchange rate and generate future scenarios of this variable, this because exchange risk management has become a strategic activity of the corporate governance. Also the study aims to expand the uses of operators like Heavy Ordering Weight Moving Average (HOWMA) in different fields of economy and management

Heavy moving averages and their application in econometric forecasting

This paper presents the heavy ordered weighted moving average (HOWMA) operator. It is an aggregation operator that uses the main characteristics of two well-known techniques: the heavy ordered weighted averaging (OWA) and the moving averages. Therefore, this operator provides a parameterized family of aggregation operators from the minimum to the total operator and includes the OWA operator as a special case. It uses a heavy weighting vector in the moving average formulation and it represents the information available and the knowledge of the decision maker about the future scenarios of the phenomenon, according to his attitudinal character. Some of the main properties of this operator are studied, including a wide range of families of HOWMA operators such as the heavy moving average and heavy weighted moving average operators. The HOWMA operator is also extended using generalized and quasi-arithmetic means. An example concerning the foreign exchange rate between US dollars and Mexican pesos is also presented

Growth, institutions and power groups. The forgotten effects in Sinaloa, 1994-2014

Through a non-numerical model, this research identifies the relations of causality revealed by omissions of the power groups that are in charge of political and economic institutions in Sinaloa, and which account for the weak local economic growth. This contribution lies in the use of a methodology that evaluates economic performance based on the subjective assessment of experts’ thinking, who are members of the power elite. For this purpose, postulates of the fuzzy subset theory and the forgotten effects model are introduced. The results suggest that the causes of technological backwardness are a fragile democracy and a weak citizen participation, which reduce growth potential by accumulating degrees of omission. Deficient investment in human capital, technology and research and development leads to insufficient technical progress, educational backwardness, technological stagnation and crime

Comparison of the GARCH and stochastic models: An application to the Mexican peso-us dollar exchange rate

Forecasting volatility is of great importance an important topic for researchers, entrepreneurs, and policymakers. This work compares different volatility models to ascertain their forecasting efficiency. The models include standard approaches such as Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH), exponential GARCH, and Stochastic Volatility models (SV). For estimation, a comparison between the Frequentist and the Bayesian approaches are made using the maximum likelihood and the Monte Carlo Markov Chains (MCMC) methods. The case analysis considers the Mexican peso/US dollar exchange rate. The results show a favorable behavior between the SV models estimated with the MCMC and the GARCH models in forecasting out of the sample. Additionally, the analysis shows that the current volatility reacts to the data within the last period, despite the former periods.El pronóstico de la volatilidad es un tema importante para investigadores, empresarios y responsables políticos. Este trabajo compara modelos de volatilidad para determinar su eficiencia en el pronóstico. Los modelos incluyen modelos estándar, como los son, modelos de Heteroscedasticidad condicional autoregresiva (GARCH), exponencial y Volatilidad estocástica (SV). Para la estimación, se realiza una comparación entre los métodos frecuentistas y bayesianos, utilizando máxima verosimilitud y Cadenas de Marcov Montecarlo (MCMC). El análisis es aplicado en el tipo de cambio del peso mexicano-dólar estadounidense. Los resultados muestran que los modelos SV estimados con MCMC se comportan favorablemente frente a los modelos GARCH en el pronóstico de la muestra. Además, el análisis evidencia que la volatilidad actual reacciona a la última información dentro de un período, sin importar los períodos anteriores

Poder, liderazgo y control de las distribuidoras en la horticultura de exportación sinaloense

A key concept in the construction of the paradigm of global value chains is governance, for its constitution the variables of power, leadership and control are essential. The research focuses on Sinaloa vegetable distributors in the U.S.A. market, which reveals the interaction between regions of different countries for the formation of a horticultural value chain. The result is an index that defines which of the actors, involved in the fresh produce trade, practices more governance.Un término clave para la construcción del paradigma de cadenas globales de valor es el de gobernanza, concepto en el cual las variables poder, liderazgo y control son fundamentales. La investigación se enfoca en las distribuidoras de hortalizas sinaloenses en el mercado norteamericano, ya que permiten descubrir la interacción entre regiones de distintos países para la creación de una cadena hortícola de valor. El resultado es un índice que define cuál de los actores, que participa en la comercialización de vegetales frescos, ejerce mayor gobernanza

Metodología para la clasificación de industrias culturales/creativas en una ciudad media: Culiacán, Sinaloa, México

Este análisis está encaminado a esquematizar una propuesta metodológica para clasificar las industrias culturales/creativas en Culiacán, y determinar su contribución a la dinámica productiva, a partir del Sistema de Clasificación Industrial de América del Norte, de 2013, y la Classification Guide for the Canadian Framework for Culture Statistics, de 2011. Ante la limitada construcción empírica sobre el tema en México, el propósito es realizar una clasificación útil para unificar las ocupaciones involucradas en la creación, producción y distribución, a través de dominios para concretar un ordenamiento que precise la operatividad de nueve industrias en esta ciudad, a partir del cotejo estadístico por ramas económicas de los sectores secundario y terciario. Se concluye que el volumen y el crecimiento de actividades, firmas y empleo detectados delimitan las industrias culturales/creativas, aptas para promover la capacidad del sistema de producción en un cluster económico local. La clasificación es flexible y no exceptúa omisiones, más bien puede resultar concebible en otras ciudades

Industrias culturales y crecimiento económico. Un modelo para el estudio del surgimiento de clusters creativos

El vínculo manifiesto entre economía y cultura revitaliza el interés en industrias culturales dado su conceptualización e implementación, no obstante, carecen de instrumentos correspondientes a su participación económica perceptible. Al retomar teorías de crecimiento endógeno y nueva geografía económica se pro - pone un esquema de variables de industrias florecientes y un modelo de medición. Se encontró que é stas se aglomeran en cl u sters creativos con un sistema de pro - ducción de economías internas, cuya motricidad depende del capital humano, especialización, consumo y variedad relacionada. Como corolario, el modelo determina que el crecimiento está en función de potencializar tales factores en procesos distintivos condicionantes

Power, leadership and control of the distribution companies in the export of fresh vegetables from Sinaloa, México

A key concept in the construction of the paradigm of global value chains is governance, for its constitution the variables of power, leadership and control are essential. The research focuses on Sinaloa vegetable distributors in the U.S.A. market, which reveals the interaction between regions of different countries for the formation of a horticultural value chain. The result is an index that defines which of the actors, involved in the fresh produce trade, practices more governance

Induced OWA operators in linear regression

The induced ordered weighted average (IOWA) is an aggregation operator that provides a parameterized family of operators between the minimum and the maximum. This work presents a new application that uses the simple linear regression (LR) and the IOWA operator in the same formulation. We study some of its main properties and particular cases. The main advantage of the linear regression IOWA operator is that it unifies the IOWA operator with the linear regression in the same formulation considering the degree of optimism and pessimism of the decision maker. Thus, we can under- or overestimate the regression according to complex attitudes that the decision may have in the analysis. The work ends analyzing the applicability of this new approach in a problem regarding exchange rate forecasting. The objective of the new approach is to analyze the information in a more complete way

Induced Heavy Moving Averages

This paper presents the induced heavy ordered weighted moving average (IHOWMA) operator. It is an aggregation operator that uses the main characteristics of three well-known techniques: the moving average, induced operator, and heavy aggregation operator. This operator provides a parameterized family of aggregation operators that include the minimum, the maximum, and total operator as special cases. It can be used in a selection process, considering that not all decision makers have the same knowledge and expectations of the future. The main properties of this operator are studied including a wide range of families of IHOWMA operators, such as the heavy ordered weighted moving average operator and uncertain induced heavy ordered weighted moving average operator. The IHOWMA operator is also extended using generalized and quasi-arithmetic means. An example in an investment selection process is also presented